The difference between Steve’s estimate (10k) and the organizers (100k) is a factor of 10.

Steve’s method looks pretty solid to prove that the organizers number is well over estimated.

Much better statistics, atomic-clock devices for timing, or laser-based devices for measuring the length would only allow you to say that the organizers number was over estimated by a factor of (let’s say) 9.3865, instead of by a factor of 10.

]]>I was searching on google for ways to count people in rallies and your system seems very solid. Great work and excellent detail presented here.

Edwin

The Hague, Netherlands

Another way to look at the claim of 100,000 marchers is to consider how many would have to march past every 30 seconds for all of them to finish in 63 minutes. The answer is 794 people every 30 seconds. It may not be possible to say that exactly 58 people passed in a given 30-second period, but it should be clear that the person who counts didn’t miss more than 700 additional people walking by.

]]>Without disclosing the protocol for counting (written in advance, and including the instruments used), the places of the observers – and the raw data this makes no sense at all.

Counting heads and watching the clock at the same time is not easy without proper instruments and good lines of conduct.

]]>Well done =)

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